Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from January 16, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 16, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$184.00 – $190.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$189.85Published — price the day we called it

$224.02Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$200.40Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$198.35Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 31% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$200.40

peak on April 15, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+5.6%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$198.35

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

January 16, 2026 – April 16, 2026

The thesis — published January 16, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$224.02

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$184.00 – $190.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$189.85

published January 16, 2026

Confidence

83%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is the go-to company for AI computing. A broader tech rally, plus U.S.-Taiwan moves to support chip building, keep attention on the sector. Big chip earnings coming up can make prices swing. The stock may be pausing after strong gains, so the plan is to buy only on dips near support and when price momentum picks up again.

Primary drivers

Leader in chips used for AI computing and data centers
Government and industry moves are encouraging chip investment
Large investors still favor the stock despite short-term consolidation
Earnings reports from big chip firms can trigger directional moves

How it played out

NVDA: target was not reached

Lyra published NVDA on 2026-01-16 at $189.85. The thesis expected 18% growth toward $224.02. It pointed to NVIDIA's role in chips used for artificial intelligence computing and data centers, government and industry support for chip investment, large-investor interest, and the chance that big chip earnings could move the stock.

Inside the window, NVDA rose, but not enough. The highest price was $200.40 on 2026-04-15, a 5.6% gain. It never reached $224.02. The window ended at $198.35. The thesis partially played out on direction, but it missed the target.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-26, NVIDIA reported fiscal 2026 revenue of $215.938 billion, up 65%. On 2026-03-16, at GTC 2026, NVIDIA announced BlueField-4 STX, a storage architecture tied to its Vera Rubin platform.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals