Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) — closed signal from January 15, 2026
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 15, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 85 days.
The thesis — published January 15, 2026
TSMC said it will spend more in the coming years, and that news pushed companies that sell chip-making gear higher. Lam Research moved up quickly on that news. Fast, one-day jumps like this often come back a bit afterward, so it's safer to wait for a pullback and buy there instead of chasing the initial surge. Good for a short 0-3 month hold if the group keeps its strength, but expect ups and downs and size positions accordingly.
Primary drivers
- Foundries planning bigger spending raises demand for etch and deposition machines
- The whole equipment sector moved up after TSMC's outlook, helping Lam
- When spending rises, profits can grow faster than sales in the short term
- Buying after a dip lowers the chance of getting caught in a quick pullback
How it played out
LRCX: target reached in 85 days
On January 15, Lyra published a short-term LRCX thesis at $223.40. It expected 16% growth toward $259.14. The thesis pointed to higher planned foundry spending, stronger demand for etch and deposition machines, a sector move after TSMC's outlook, and the idea that waiting for a dip could reduce the risk of chasing a fast jump.
Inside the window, LRCX reached the target in 85 days. The stock peaked at $273.43 on April 14, above the target, with a 22.4% peak gain. It ended the window at $265.16 on April 15. The thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On January 28, 2026, Lam Research reported fiscal second-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.27 a share on sales of $5.34 billion, and guided to $1.35 a share on $5.7 billion for the current quarter.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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