Track record · closed signal

Amphenol Corporation (APH) — closed signal from January 15, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 15, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

APH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$153.81 Published $176.88 Target $146.98 Window close $167.04 Peak
$150.00 – $154.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$153.81Published — price the day we called it
$176.88Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$167.04Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$146.98Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 57% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$167.04
peak on January 27, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+8.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$146.98
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
January 15, 2026 – April 15, 2026

The thesis — published January 15, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$176.88
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$150.00 – $154.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$153.81
published January 15, 2026
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Amphenol makes connectors and related parts that are needed more as data centers, industrial machines, and communications gear add more wiring and sensors. Buying CommScope's CCS unit for $10.5B speeds up its business in higher-value parts. Recent price strength means waiting for a small pullback before aiming for a short-term (0-3 month) gain.

Primary drivers

  • CommScope deal grows its scale in valuable connector businesses
  • More AI and data-center builds raise parts per system
  • Company is actively reshaping its portfolio and capital use
  • Recent strong price action supports a short-term momentum trade

How it played out

APH: target was not reached

Lyra published APH on 2026-01-15 at $153.81, looking for 15% growth toward $176.88 in a short-term window. The thesis pointed to connector demand from data centers, industrial machines, and communications gear, plus the $10.5B CommScope CCS deal. It also pointed to portfolio reshaping, capital use, and recent strong price action.

Inside the window, APH rose to $167.04 on 2026-01-27, a peak gain of 8.6%. That was below the target, and the target was never reached. By 2026-04-15, it ended at $146.98. The thesis partly played out early, then missed the published target.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-28, Amphenol reported fourth-quarter results, with adjusted earnings of $0.97 per share and sales of $6.4 billion. The same report said the company guided first-quarter sales to $6.9 billion to $7 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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