Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from January 15, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 15, 2026 — +5.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$180.00 – $190.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$188.62Published — price the day we called it

$241.43Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$200.40Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$198.87Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 22% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+5.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+6.2%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$198.87

last close inside the window, ended April 15, 2026

Peak price

$200.40

peak on April 15, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published January 15, 2026

Predicted growth

+28%

over the measurement window

Target price

$241.43

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$180.00 – $190.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$188.62

published January 15, 2026

Confidence

86%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Wall Street and chipmaker news have made people more confident that demand for Nvidia products will stay strong. Tariff headlines create short-term swings, but recent coverage and supplier plans give a clear reason to expect a rebound. The chart looks worn out and may bounce in the next few months, so buy in stages.

Primary drivers

New analyst coverage can draw more institutional buyers
TSMC results and capex plans support stronger AI demand
Tariff exemptions ease the biggest downside risk to sales
Recent weakness can lead to a quick rebound over 0-3 months

How it played out

NVDA: target was not reached by April 15

Lyra published NVDA at $188.62 on January 15 with a short-term thesis for 28% growth. The thesis pointed to new analyst coverage, TSMC results and capex plans, tariff exemptions, and recent weakness that could lead to a quick rebound over 0-3 months. It expected demand for Nvidia products to stay strong.

Inside the window, NVDA rose, but not enough. The stock peaked at $200.40 on April 15, for a 6.2% gain, while the $241.43 target was never reached. It ended at $198.87. The thesis partially played out on direction, but missed on magnitude.

What happened during the window

On February 25, 2026, Nvidia reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $68.1 billion and full-year revenue of $215.938 billion. On March 16, 2026, Nvidia announced the Vera Rubin Space Module for orbital data centers.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals