NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from January 15, 2026
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 15, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 22% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published January 15, 2026
Wall Street and chipmaker news have made people more confident that demand for Nvidia products will stay strong. Tariff headlines create short-term swings, but recent coverage and supplier plans give a clear reason to expect a rebound. The chart looks worn out and may bounce in the next few months, so buy in stages.
Primary drivers
- New analyst coverage can draw more institutional buyers
- TSMC results and capex plans support stronger AI demand
- Tariff exemptions ease the biggest downside risk to sales
- Recent weakness can lead to a quick rebound over 0-3 months
How it played out
NVDA: target was not reached by April 15
Lyra published NVDA at $188.62 on January 15 with a short-term thesis for 28% growth. The thesis pointed to new analyst coverage, TSMC results and capex plans, tariff exemptions, and recent weakness that could lead to a quick rebound over 0-3 months. It expected demand for Nvidia products to stay strong.
Inside the window, NVDA rose, but not enough. The stock peaked at $200.40 on April 15, for a 6.2% gain, while the $241.43 target was never reached. It ended at $198.87. The thesis partially played out on direction, but missed on magnitude.
What happened during the window
On February 25, 2026, Nvidia reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $68.1 billion and full-year revenue of $215.938 billion. On March 16, 2026, Nvidia announced the Vera Rubin Space Module for orbital data centers.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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