Track record · closed signal

New Gold Inc. (NGD) — closed signal from January 14, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 14, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

NGD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$10.24 Published $12.79 Target $12.16 Window close $13.63 Peak
$9.70 – $10.30Entry zone — fair-value band
$10.24Published — price the day we called it
$12.79Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$13.63Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$12.16Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 9 days.

Peak price
$13.63
peak on January 26, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+33.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$12.16
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
9
Window
January 14, 2026 – April 14, 2026

The thesis — published January 14, 2026

Predicted growth
+25%
over the measurement window
Target price
$12.79
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$9.70 – $10.30
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$10.24
published January 14, 2026
Confidence
80%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

New Gold's stock is moving because there's a near-term shareholder vote on a proposed deal. Proxy adviser support may keep buyers interested, but the stock already ran up a lot so headlines can cause quick price swings. Use smaller positions, buy on drops into the entry range, and cut back if the deal looks less likely.

Primary drivers

  • Proxy adviser support could speed up the deal timeline
  • Rising gold interest keeps miners on investors' radar
  • Recent strong rise can bring fast buying and sudden reversals
  • Deal news often causes price gaps, so size positions carefully

How it played out

NGD: target reached in 9 days

Lyra published NGD on 2026-01-14 at 10.24, with a short-term thesis for 25% growth. The target was 12.79. The thesis pointed to proxy adviser support for a proposed deal, gold interest keeping miners in view, a recent strong rise, and the risk that deal headlines could move the price quickly.

Inside the window from 2026-01-14 to 2026-04-14, NGD reached the target in 9 days. It peaked at 13.63 on 2026-01-26, a 33.2% gain. It ended the window at 12.16. The thesis played out, because the target was reached before the window closed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.