Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from January 13, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 13, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$1,055.00 – $1,090.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$1,081.70Published — price the day we called it

$1,189.86Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$1,114.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$929.55Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 30% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$1,114.00

peak on February 4, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+3%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$929.55

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

January 13, 2026 – April 13, 2026

The thesis — published January 13, 2026

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$1,189.86

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$1,055.00 – $1,090.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$1,081.70

published January 13, 2026

Confidence

74%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

LLY looks like a short-term rebound candidate that can provide steadier growth while other parts of the market swing. Recent headlines about drugmakers boosting U.S. production keep big pharma in focus. The stock fell recently and may bounce back, but the downward pressure hasn't fully eased. Buy only on controlled dips and after it shows short-term price recovery.

Primary drivers

Stable growth that can help when other sectors rotate
News about U.S. manufacturing boosts sector attention
Recent drop gives a clearer, limited-risk buying area
Strong drug pipeline and factory investment build confidence

How it played out

LLY: the 10% rebound thesis did not reach its target

Lyra published LLY on 2026-01-13 as a short-term rebound setup at 1081.70, with expected growth of 10%. The thesis pointed to steadier growth while other parts of the market swung, U.S. manufacturing attention, a recent drop into a clearer buying area, and confidence from the drug pipeline and factory investment.

Inside the 2026-01-13 to 2026-04-13 window, LLY peaked at 1114 on 2026-02-04, a 3% gain. It stayed below the 1189.86 target and never reached it. The stock ended at 929.55. The thesis only partially played out at first, then missed by the close.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All LLY signals