Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from January 13, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 13, 2026 — +2.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$178.00 – $186.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$184.43Published — price the day we called it

$225.00Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$197.63Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$189.31Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 33% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+2.6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+7.2%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-0.8%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$189.31

last close inside the window, ended April 13, 2026

Peak price

$197.63

peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published January 13, 2026

Predicted growth

+22%

over the measurement window

Target price

$225.00

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$178.00 – $186.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$184.43

published January 13, 2026

Confidence

84%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA fell a lot recently, creating a short-term buying opportunity. New reports say memory parts are tight because data centers keep buying, which strengthens the AI demand story. Buying now could lead to a several-week recovery as money flows back in. Use staged buys and expect price swings.

Primary drivers

Big drop makes a possible short-term rebound likely
Tight memory supply hints at steady data-center buying
Ongoing AI infrastructure investment supports revenue
Large, liquid stock can get big, fast inflows

How it played out

NVDA: target was not reached

Lyra published NVDA at $184.43 on 2026-01-13 for a short-term window ending 2026-04-13. The thesis expected 22% growth to $225. It pointed to a recent big drop, tight memory supply as a sign of steady data-center buying, continued artificial intelligence infrastructure spending, and the chance that a large, liquid stock could see fast inflows.

Inside the window, NVDA rose, but not enough. The peak was $197.63 on 2026-02-25, a 7.2% gain. It never reached $225. By 2026-04-13, it ended at $189.31. The thesis partially played out because the stock rose, but the full target missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-25, Nvidia reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $68.1 billion. On 2026-03-16, Nvidia announced the Vera Rubin Space Module for orbital data centers and related space computing systems.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals