Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from January 12, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 12, 2026 — +2.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$184.60 Published $217.83 Target $188.63 Window close $197.63 Peak
$178.00 – $186.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$184.60Published — price the day we called it
$217.83Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$197.63Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$188.63Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 39% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
+2.2%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+7.1%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
-2%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$188.63
last close inside the window, ended April 12, 2026
Peak price
$197.63
peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published January 12, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$217.83
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$178.00 – $186.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$184.60
published January 12, 2026
Confidence
86%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA announced product updates and a big $1B AI lab with a drug company. Those moves expand who wants its chips beyond the biggest cloud providers, which could bring new customers and attention. Expect price jumps and drops over the next 0-3 months; consider buying near the stated zone if the price stays there.

Primary drivers

  • New BioNeMo and Clara updates help spread AI use in life sciences
  • $1B lab with Lilly signals more enterprise customers for AI tools
  • NVIDIA leads AI hardware so it often benefits when investors take more risk
  • Buying after a pullback can attract others if the price holds the support zone

How it played out

NVDA: thesis rose but missed the target

Lyra published NVDA at $184.60 on 2026-01-12, with 18% expected growth over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to BioNeMo and Clara updates, a $1B lab with Lilly, broader enterprise demand for artificial intelligence tools, NVIDIA's hardware lead, and a possible buyer response if the price held the $178 to $186 zone.

Inside the window, NVDA rose but never reached $217.83. Its peak was $197.63 on 2026-02-25, a 7.1% gain. By 2026-04-12, it ended at $188.63. The published direction was partly right, but the target was missed. The thesis partially played out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-03-16, Nvidia unveiled DLSS 5 at GTC 2026, according to Tom's Hardware. The report said it was planned for fall 2026.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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