Track record · closed signal

Hess Midstream LP (HESM) — closed signal from July 18, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 16, 2025 — -18.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

HESM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$36.90 – $37.82Entry zone — fair-value band

$39.40Published — price the day we called it

$45.41Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$42.39Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$32.04Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 38% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-18.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+7.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$32.04

last close inside the window, ended October 16, 2025

Peak price

$42.39

peak on July 31, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 18, 2025

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$45.41

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$36.90 – $37.82

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$39.40

published July 18, 2025

Confidence

72%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Investors are very upbeat about Hess Midstream after news of a new chief executive, lifting the price 6.8% on unusually heavy buying. The units also hand out a chunky 7% cash payout, and recent trading shows more buyers than sellers. However, the company’s basic financial strength is only average and its debt load is growing. If oil stays above $80, the units might rise another 15-20% over the next three months, but a broad market chill would hurt.

Primary drivers

New CEO announcement lifted price 6.8% amid the heaviest trading seen so far.
Investor mood scores near perfect and strong daily trading back a generous 7% cash payout.
Recent market signals show buyers firmly in charge, suggesting the climb could continue.
Oil staying above $80 keeps pipelines busy, supporting steady cash flow to investors.

How it played out

HESM: the target was not reached

Lyra published HESM at $39.40 on July 18, 2025, with expected growth of 20% over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to a new chief executive announcement, a 6.8% price lift on heavy trading, strong buyer signals, a 7% cash payout, and oil above $80 as support for steady cash flow.

Inside the window, HESM rose to a peak of $42.39 on July 31, 2025. That was a 7.6% gain, but it stayed below the $45.41 target. It never got there. By October 16, 2025, it ended at $32.04. The thesis partially played out early, then missed by the close.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All HESM signals