Track record · closed signal

Bank of America Corporation (BAC) — closed signal from January 11, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 11, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

BAC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$55.85 Published $62.55 Target $52.54 Window close $56.87 Peak
$54.50 – $56.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$55.85Published — price the day we called it
$62.55Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$56.87Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$52.54Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 15% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$56.87
peak on February 6, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+1.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$52.54
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
January 11, 2026 – April 11, 2026

The thesis — published January 11, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$62.55
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$54.50 – $56.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$55.85
published January 11, 2026
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Bank of America faces a busy week with many banks reporting and inflation data (CPI) coming. These events can quickly change expectations about interest rates and loan losses, pushing the stock up or down. Because of that, this is a short-term trade idea: start small near the entry zone and only add after you see how the stock reacts to earnings.

Primary drivers

  • Earnings reports could change investor expectations quickly
  • Bank results move with interest rate and inflation news
  • Bank stocks add balance if your portfolio is heavy in tech
  • Money may shift into banks if economic news looks favorable

How it played out

BAC: target was not reached by April 11

Lyra published BAC at $55.85 on January 11, 2026 as a short-term idea with 12% expected growth. The thesis pointed to a busy bank earnings week, CPI data, interest-rate expectations, loan-loss expectations, and possible money shifting into banks if economic news looked favorable.

Inside the window, BAC rose to a peak of $56.87 on February 6, a 1.8% gain. It stayed below the $62.55 target and never reached it. By April 11, it ended at $52.54. The thesis missed on the target and only partly played out on direction before fading.

What happened during the window

On January 14, 2026, Bank of America reported fourth-quarter results, with adjusted earnings of 98 cents a share and revenue of $28.4 billion. The company also said first-quarter net interest income would grow between 5% and 7%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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