Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from January 11, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 11, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$184.86 Published $229.23 Target $188.63 Window close $197.63 Peak
$178.00 – $186.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$184.86Published — price the day we called it
$229.23Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$197.63Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$188.63Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 29% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$197.63
peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+6.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$188.63
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
January 11, 2026 – April 11, 2026

The thesis — published January 11, 2026

Predicted growth
+24%
over the measurement window
Target price
$229.23
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$178.00 – $186.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$184.86
published January 11, 2026
Confidence
85%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is a leader in computer chips for AI. The stock recently fell and now looks like a short-term rebound trade because fresh news shows more AI projects are using its products and big investors remain interested. The idea is to buy near a price area that has held before, then wait for signs the price settles before adding.

Primary drivers

  • Strong demand for AI computing keeping the company a market leader
  • More AI projects using its chips across devices and businesses
  • Investors likely to buy dips in a leading AI stock
  • Positive market focus on AI keeps attention and investment flowing

How it played out

NVDA: the thesis rose but did not reach the target

Lyra published NVDA on 2026-01-11 at $184.86 with 24% expected growth and a $229.23 target. The thesis pointed to NVIDIA's lead in chips for artificial intelligence, broader use of its products across projects and businesses, dip buying by investors, and continued market attention on artificial intelligence.

Inside the window, NVDA peaked at $197.63 on 2026-02-25, a 6.9% gain. It stayed below the $229.23 target. It never got there. The window ended on 2026-04-11 with NVDA at $188.63. The thesis partially played out, because the stock rose, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-25, NVIDIA reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $68.13 billion. On the same date, coverage said the company guided for first-quarter revenue of $76.44 billion to $79.56 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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