Track record · closed signal

Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) — closed signal from January 10, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 10, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMAT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$301.18 Published $355.39 Target $399.49 Window close $407.29 Peak
$292.00 – $301.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$301.18Published — price the day we called it
$355.39Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$407.29Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$399.49Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 34 days.

Peak price
$407.29
peak on April 10, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+35.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$399.49
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
34
Window
January 10, 2026 – April 10, 2026

The thesis — published January 10, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$355.39
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$292.00 – $301.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$301.18
published January 10, 2026
Confidence
71%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Applied Materials tends to do well when investors expect a healthy chip cycle. Right now broad market strength and a strong TSMC report make equipment demand look more likely, but the stock has already moved up a lot. Prefer buying on small drops, and reduce size if buying interest weakens.

Primary drivers

  • Record index close on Jan 9 raised appetite for chip equipment
  • Strong TSMC revenue improved outlook for equipment orders
  • Chip equipment stocks often lead during broad risk-on periods
  • Buying on pullbacks lowers the chance of overpaying for the stock

How it played out

AMAT: target reached in 34 days

Lyra published AMAT at $301.18 on January 10, 2026. The thesis expected 18% growth and pointed to a record index close on January 9, a strong TSMC revenue report, risk-on demand for chip equipment stocks, and buying on pullbacks to avoid overpaying.

Inside the window, AMAT reached the $355.39 target in 34 days. The stock kept rising after that and peaked at $407.29 on April 10, with a 35.2% gain. It ended the window at $399.49. The thesis played out, and the target was exceeded.

What happened during the window

On February 12, 2026, Applied Materials reported fiscal first-quarter adjusted earnings of $2.38 per share on sales of $7.01 billion. It also guided the next quarter to adjusted earnings of $2.64 per share on sales of $7.65 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Share this receipt

A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All AMAT signals