Track record · closed signal

RTX Corporation (RTX) — closed signal from January 10, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 10, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

RTX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$188.50 Published $205.47 Target $201.56 Window close $214.50 Peak
$184.00 – $190.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$188.50Published — price the day we called it
$205.47Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$214.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$201.56Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 25 days.

Peak price
$214.50
peak on March 3, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+13.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$201.56
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
25
Window
January 10, 2026 – April 10, 2026

The thesis — published January 10, 2026

Predicted growth
+9%
over the measurement window
Target price
$205.47
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$184.00 – $190.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$188.50
published January 10, 2026
Confidence
63%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

RTX is a steady way to add aerospace and defense to a short-term portfolio. Recent news on Jan 9 shows more investor interest in defense linked to proposed U.S. military budget increases, which can help the stock. The main risk is whether company contracts and delivery schedules meet expectations. Buy on dips and tighten risk if momentum weakens.

Primary drivers

  • Jan 9 defense budget talk drew investor interest
  • Less volatile than hot AI and chip stocks
  • Has commercial aircraft business that moves with cycles
  • Easy to set nearby risk limits around price drops

How it played out

RTX: target reached in 25 days

Lyra published RTX at $188.50 on 2026-01-10 with expected growth of 9%. The thesis pointed to defense-budget talk on Jan 9, investor interest in defense, a steadier profile than hot artificial-intelligence and chip stocks, commercial aircraft exposure, and nearby risk limits around price drops.

Inside the window, RTX reached the $205.47 target in 25 days. It peaked at $214.50 on 2026-03-03, with a peak gain of 13.8%. By 2026-04-10 it ended at $201.56, below the peak but still above the publication price. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

RTX reported fourth-quarter 2025 results in January 2026, with sales of $24.2 billion and adjusted earnings of $1.55 per share. On March 31, 2026, reports said Pratt & Whitney received a $3.8 billion contract modification for F135 engines used in F-35 jets.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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