Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from January 10, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 10, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$180.00 – $186.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$184.86Published — price the day we called it

$225.53Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$197.63Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$188.63Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 31% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$197.63

peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+6.9%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$188.63

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

January 10, 2026 – April 10, 2026

The thesis — published January 10, 2026

Predicted growth

+22%

over the measurement window

Target price

$225.53

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$180.00 – $186.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$184.86

published January 10, 2026

Confidence

88%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Nvidia is a leading AI chipmaker that recently pulled back from its highs. Analysts see this drop as a short-term buying opportunity over the next 0-3 months because price action is settling near normal levels rather than at an extreme. A UBS note with a $235 target and signs of product ramps and China sales could lift sentiment. Add gradually and only if gains continue on follow-up up days; avoid buying sudden intraday spikes.

Primary drivers

UBS reiteration and $235 target can improve short-term sentiment
New product ramp (Rubin) keeps Nvidia central to AI growth
Recent pullback looks like a dip, offering a lower entry point
As a big AI leader, it benefits when investors favor riskier stocks

How it played out

NVDA: target was not reached

Lyra published NVDA at 184.86 on 2026-01-10. The thesis expected 22% growth in a short-term window. It pointed to a UBS reiteration with a $235 target, a Rubin product ramp, a recent pullback that looked like a lower entry point, and stronger appetite for riskier stocks tied to artificial intelligence leaders.

Inside the window, NVDA rose, but it did not reach 225.53. The peak was 197.63 on 2026-02-25, a 6.9% gain. It ended the window at 188.63 on 2026-04-10. The thesis partially played out on direction, but it missed the target.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-25, Nvidia reported fiscal fourth-quarter and fiscal-year results. On 2026-03-16, Nvidia announced the Vera Rubin Space Module at GTC 2026.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals