Track record · closed signal

Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA) — closed signal from July 18, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 16, 2025 — +4.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

PEGA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$49.65 – $52.14Entry zone — fair-value band

$52.30Published — price the day we called it

$67.92Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$60.94Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$54.56Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 55% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+4.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+16.5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$54.56

last close inside the window, ended October 16, 2025

Peak price

$60.94

peak on September 24, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 18, 2025

Predicted growth

+30%

over the measurement window

Target price

$67.92

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$49.65 – $52.14

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$52.30

published July 18, 2025

Confidence

82%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

The stock has fallen hard and now appears to be turning the corner as selling pressure fades. Excitement is rising because Pegasystems just signed a five-year deal with Amazon Web Services to add new AI tools. Shares are still 35% below their April peak, so even a small upside surprise when results come out on 31 July could force pessimistic traders to buy back shares. This mix could give the price a strong lift over the next three months.

Primary drivers

Five-year AI partnership with Amazon Web Services could boost sales and market trust.
Big drop plus rising optimism gives a classic snap-back setup for bargain hunters.
July 31 earnings call is the key moment; a good report may pull in hesitant funds.
About 9% of shares are bet against; good news could push these traders to buy fast.

How it played out

PEGA: thesis partly played out, target missed

Lyra published PEGA at $52.30 on 2025-07-18 with a short-term thesis for 30% growth. The thesis pointed to fading selling pressure, a five-year Amazon Web Services partnership around artificial intelligence tools, shares still 35% below their April peak, the 31 July results date, and about 9% of shares bet against the stock.

Inside the window, PEGA rose but did not reach $67.92. The peak was $60.94 on 2025-09-24, a 16.5% gain. It ended at $54.56 on 2025-10-16. The direction was right, but the target was missed. Verdict: partial.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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