Track record · closed signal

Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA) — closed signal from July 18, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 16, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

PEGA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$52.30 Published $67.92 Target $54.56 Window close $60.94 Peak
$49.65 – $52.14Entry zone — fair-value band
$52.30Published — price the day we called it
$67.92Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$60.94Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$54.56Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 55% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$60.94
peak on September 24, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+16.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$54.56
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
July 18, 2025 – October 16, 2025

The thesis — published July 18, 2025

Predicted growth
+30%
over the measurement window
Target price
$67.92
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$49.65 – $52.14
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$52.30
published July 18, 2025
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

The stock has fallen hard and now appears to be turning the corner as selling pressure fades. Excitement is rising because Pegasystems just signed a five-year deal with Amazon Web Services to add new AI tools. Shares are still 35% below their April peak, so even a small upside surprise when results come out on 31 July could force pessimistic traders to buy back shares. This mix could give the price a strong lift over the next three months.

Primary drivers

  • Five-year AI partnership with Amazon Web Services could boost sales and market trust.
  • Big drop plus rising optimism gives a classic snap-back setup for bargain hunters.
  • July 31 earnings call is the key moment; a good report may pull in hesitant funds.
  • About 9% of shares are bet against; good news could push these traders to buy fast.

How it played out

PEGA: thesis partly played out, target missed

Lyra published PEGA at $52.30 on 2025-07-18 with a short-term thesis for 30% growth. The thesis pointed to fading selling pressure, a five-year Amazon Web Services partnership around artificial intelligence tools, shares still 35% below their April peak, the 31 July results date, and about 9% of shares bet against the stock.

Inside the window, PEGA rose but did not reach $67.92. The peak was $60.94 on 2025-09-24, a 16.5% gain. It ended at $54.56 on 2025-10-16. The direction was right, but the target was missed. Verdict: partial.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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