Track record · closed signal

Intel Corporation (INTC) — closed signal from January 9, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 9, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

INTC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$44.04 Published $53.73 Target $61.72 Window close $62.08 Peak
$42.50 – $44.25Entry zone — fair-value band
$44.04Published — price the day we called it
$53.73Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$62.08Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$61.72Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 12 days.

Peak price
$62.08
peak on April 9, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+41%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$61.72
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
12
Window
January 9, 2026 – April 9, 2026

The thesis — published January 9, 2026

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$53.73
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$42.50 – $44.25
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$44.04
published January 9, 2026
Confidence
69%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

This is a short-term, higher-risk trade tied to the new AI PC announced at CES on Jan 9. If reviews and pre-orders are strong, the stock could get several weeks of buying interest, but the excitement can fade fast. Favor buying modestly when the price pulls back and use tight position sizing so a stalled move doesn't cause big losses.

Primary drivers

  • New AI PC launch can create short-term customer interest and sales
  • Positive industry mood can lift companies that have lagged behind
  • Large trading volume makes it easier to enter and exit positions
  • Headline-driven rallies can lose steam quickly if news disappoints

How it played out

INTC: target reached in 12 days

Lyra published INTC at 44.04 on 2026-01-09 as a short-term, higher-risk trade with 22% expected growth. The thesis pointed to a new artificial intelligence PC launch, possible customer interest, positive industry mood, large trading volume, and the risk that a headline-driven rally could lose steam quickly.

Inside the window, INTC reached the 53.73 target in 12 days. It later peaked at 62.08 on 2026-04-09, with a 41% peak gain. The stock ended at 61.72. The published thesis played out, and the move went beyond the target.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-22, Intel reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $13.7 billion and said supply was expected to be tightest in Q1 before improving later. On 2026-01-23, Tom's Hardware reported that Intel shares fell after the earnings update and noted full-year 2025 revenue of $52.9 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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