Track record · closed signal

CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE) — closed signal from January 9, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 9, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

CTRE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$37.99 Published $42.54 Target $39.42 Window close $41.72 Peak
$37.00 – $38.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$37.99Published — price the day we called it
$42.54Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$41.72Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$39.42Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$41.72
peak on February 27, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+9.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$39.42
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
January 9, 2026 – April 9, 2026

The thesis — published January 9, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$42.54
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$37.00 – $38.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$37.99
published January 9, 2026
Confidence
87%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

CareTrust looks like a steadier short-term opportunity (0-3 months) because people still need healthcare real estate. A recent purchase of nursing homes in the Mid-Atlantic and new leadership show the company is actively growing. Price has been orderly, so the safer plan is to buy small dips instead of chasing higher prices.

Primary drivers

  • Bought a skilled nursing portfolio and added leaders to run deals
  • Investors seek income and safety in healthcare property stocks
  • Relatively calm price movement makes risk easier to manage
  • Could be valued higher if investors reward continued acquisitions

How it played out

CTRE: thesis rose but missed the target

Lyra published CTRE at 37.99 on January 9, 2026, with 12% expected growth and a 42.54 target by April 9, 2026. The thesis pointed to healthcare real estate demand, a skilled nursing portfolio purchase, added deal leadership, calm price movement, and the chance that investors would reward continued acquisitions.

Inside the window, CTRE rose. It peaked at 41.72 on February 27, 2026, for a 9.8% gain, but it stayed below the target. It never got there. The stock ended the window at 39.42. The thesis partially played out, but the target was missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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