Track record · closed signal

Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM) — closed signal from January 8, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 8, 2026 — -16.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMTM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$31.00 – $33.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$32.43Published — price the day we called it

$36.32Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$38.11Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$27.15Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 21 days.

At window close

-16.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+17.5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-1.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$27.15

last close inside the window, ended April 8, 2026

Peak price

$38.11

peak on February 6, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published January 8, 2026

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$36.32

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$31.00 – $33.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$32.43

published January 8, 2026

Confidence

62%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Amentum gets short-term interest because it helped rehearsal work for a big NASA mission and a large fund bought shares. Those items can bring more buyers. But the company depends on a stream of short contracts, so excitement could be premature and price drops may be sharp if contract timing slips. Prefer buying on calm pullbacks, not chasing rises.

Primary drivers

Work on Artemis II shows it wins important government contracts
A big fund buying shares can bring more steady buyers
Government contracts are generally more stable than other industries
News about contract timing can cause quick price drops

How it played out

AMTM: target reached in 21 days

Lyra published AMTM at $32.43 on 2026-01-08 with expected growth of 12%. The target was $36.32. The thesis pointed to Artemis II work, fund buying, steadier government contracts, and the risk that contract timing news could cause quick price drops.

Inside the window, the stock reached $38.11 on 2026-02-06. That was above the target, with a peak gain of 17.5%, and the target was reached in 21 days. By 2026-04-08, it ended at $27.15. The thesis played out on the measured target, even though the later finish was below the publication price.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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