The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from July 18, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 16, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 34% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 18, 2025
Schwab's latest quarter showed profits up 20% and the company spent $2 billion to buy back its own shares, making each remaining share more valuable. Brokerage Raymond James now sees the stock at $103 as rising interest income boosts results. Even at about 15 times next year's earnings it still costs less than competitors, so with heavier than normal buying the price could climb past $96 within roughly three months.
Primary drivers
- Analyst Raymond James now sees the stock at $103 as interest income improves
- High strength score and steady buying for weeks show rising investor demand
- Recent $2 billion share buyback leaves fewer shares, boosting earnings per share
- Shares trade at 15 times expected earnings, still cheaper than similar brokers at 18
How it played out
SCHW: thesis rose but target was missed
Lyra published SCHW at 94.33 on 2025-07-18 with a short-term thesis for 15% growth. The thesis pointed to profits up 20%, a $2 billion share buyback, Raymond James seeing the stock at $103 as interest income improved, steady buying, and valuation near 15 times expected earnings versus similar brokers at 18.
Inside the window, SCHW rose but did not reach the 107.86 target. Its peak was 99.14 on 2025-08-13, a 5.1% gain. It never got there. By 2025-10-16, the stock ended at 93.15. The thesis partially played out, but the target was missed.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-16, The Charles Schwab Corporation reported third-quarter profit of $2.28 billion, or $1.26 per share, and revenue of $6.14 billion. The report also said adjusted earnings were $1.31 per share.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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