Track record · closed signal

RTX Corporation (RTX) — closed signal from January 8, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 8, 2026 — +4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

RTX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$192.00 – $197.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$195.72Published — price the day we called it

$215.29Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$214.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$203.48Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 96% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+9.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-1.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$203.48

last close inside the window, ended April 8, 2026

Peak price

$214.50

peak on March 3, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published January 8, 2026

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$215.29

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$192.00 – $197.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$195.72

published January 8, 2026

Confidence

74%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

This is a short-term trade based on hopes for higher defense budgets after a presidential call for bigger spending. Big news pushed defense stocks higher, so momentum looks good now. But the move depends on policy details, so it can reverse if budget plans disappoint. Buying after a small pullback is safer than chasing headlines.

Primary drivers

Expectations of bigger defense budgets are lifting the sector
Existing orders and installed equipment help predict sales
Large investors often favor big defense contractors during news
Buying after a dip reduces the chance of a quick reversal

How it played out

RTX: target missed after a near reach

Lyra published RTX on 2026-01-08 at $195.72 for a short-term window through 2026-04-08. The thesis expected 10% growth to $215.29. It pointed to hopes for higher defense budgets, existing orders and installed equipment, large-investor interest in big defense contractors during news, and a safer entry after a small pullback.

Inside the window, RTX rose to $214.50 on 2026-03-03, with a 9.6% peak gain. It stayed below the target. By 2026-04-08, it ended at $203.48. The thesis mostly played out, but it did not fully reach the published target.

What happened during the window

On February 11, 2026, Axios reported that Raytheon, an RTX division, had demonstrated a Coyote Block 3 Non-Kinetic interceptor against multiple drones during a U.S. Army exercise. In early February 2026, MarketWatch reported that RTX's Raytheon division had agreements with the Trump administration to expand missile production and speed delivery.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All RTX signals