Track record · closed signal

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from January 7, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 7, 2026 — -16.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

PLTR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$179.65 Published $211.98 Target $150.07 Window close $187.28 Peak
$170.00 – $180.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$179.65Published — price the day we called it
$211.98Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$187.28Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$150.07Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 24% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-16.5%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+4.3%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
-4.1%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$150.07
last close inside the window, ended April 7, 2026
Peak price
$187.28
peak on January 7, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published January 7, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$211.98
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$170.00 – $180.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$179.65
published January 7, 2026
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Palantir is acting like a short-term gauge for enthusiasm about AI. Big fund buying recently helps keep the price from falling too far and can restart upward moves, but the stock still moves a lot with market mood. Because of that, it's smarter to buy in small steps near the $170-$180 area rather than chasing big jumps.

Primary drivers

  • Large fund buying can support price when it dips
  • AI and defense contracts could drive sales and budgets
  • Stock swings more in upbeat markets, so it can jump quickly
  • Ongoing consolidation means staggered buying is safer

How it played out

PLTR: the target was not reached

Lyra published PLTR at $179.65 on 2026-01-07 for a short-term window ending 2026-04-07. The thesis expected 18% growth, with buying preferred near the $170 to $180 area. It pointed to large fund buying, artificial intelligence and defense contracts, market mood, and ongoing consolidation as reasons to use staggered buying.

Inside the window, PLTR peaked at $187.28 on 2026-01-07, a 4.3% gain. That stayed below the $211.98 target. It never got there. By 2026-04-07, the stock ended at $150.07. The published thesis partially played out at first, then missed the target.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-03, Palantir reported Q4 2025 revenue of $1.41 billion and earnings per share of $0.25. The report said both were above Wall Street expectations. The same report said U.S. government revenue grew 66% to $570 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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