Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from January 6, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 6, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$186.00 – $193.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$191.16Published — price the day we called it

$225.57Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$197.63Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$177.64Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 19% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$197.63

peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+3.4%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$177.64

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

January 6, 2026 – April 6, 2026

The thesis — published January 6, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$225.57

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$186.00 – $193.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$191.16

published January 6, 2026

Confidence

80%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Nvidia is getting attention from recent CES announcements about faster data-center production and new self-driving projects. That keeps its AI story strong and draws active buying, but headlines can make the price jump or drop quickly. For a short trade, prefer buying when price pulls back instead of chasing after big news. Main risks are a broad tech selloff or stronger competition.

Primary drivers

CES updates show progress in data-center products and production
New self-driving initiatives add another reason investors watch the company
Top industry position helps attract ongoing large investor interest
Using pullbacks to buy helps limit risk in a volatile leading stock

How it played out

NVDA: target was not reached

Lyra published NVDA at 191.16 on 2026-01-06 for a short-term window ending 2026-04-06. The thesis expected 18% growth. It pointed to CES updates on data-center products and production, new self-driving initiatives, a top industry position, and buying pullbacks in a volatile leading stock.

Inside the window, NVDA rose to a peak of 197.63 on 2026-02-25, a 3.4% gain. It stayed below the 225.57 target and never reached it. The stock ended at 177.64. The thesis partially played out on direction at the peak, but missed the target and finished below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-25, Nvidia reported record quarterly sales of 68B. During March 2026, coverage of GTC said Nvidia introduced new Vera Rubin-related hardware and storage systems for large computing workloads. These were announcements during the window, not stated causes of the stock move.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals