Track record · closed signal

monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) — closed signal from January 5, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 5, 2026 — -53.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MNDY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$147.24 Published $179.63 Target $68.34 Window close $151.00 Peak
$142.00 – $150.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$147.24Published — price the day we called it
$179.63Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$151.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$68.34Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 12% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-53.6%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+2.6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
-4.4%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$68.34
last close inside the window, ended April 5, 2026
Peak price
$151.00
peak on January 8, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published January 5, 2026

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$179.63
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$142.00 – $150.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$147.24
published January 5, 2026
Confidence
73%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

monday.com is a volatile software stock that could bounce if enterprise spending recovers. An analyst report on Jan 2 said enterprise software started 2026 slowly, which raises the chance of a quick rebound; BTIG's positive long-term view also helps. For now, wait for a clear short-term upturn before committing money.

Primary drivers

  • Positive analyst notes can make buyers more willing to buy
  • Weakness in software can lead to quick rebounds when sentiment shifts
  • Growing use of workflow modules supports steady customer demand
  • Big price swings mean locking in gains quickly and limiting losses

How it played out

MNDY: the 22% thesis did not play out

Lyra published MNDY at $147.24 on 2026-01-05, with a short-term thesis for 22% expected growth toward $179.63. The thesis pointed to positive analyst notes, a possible software sentiment rebound, growing use of workflow modules, and the stock's big price swings.

Inside the window, MNDY only reached $151 on 2026-01-08, a 2.6% peak gain. It stayed below the target and never got there. By 2026-04-05, it ended at $68.34. The published thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-09, monday.com reported fourth-quarter revenue of $333.9 million and adjusted earnings of $1.45 per share, while its 2026 revenue guidance came in below Wall Street estimates.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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