Track record · closed signal

Bank of America Corporation (BAC) — closed signal from January 5, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 5, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

BAC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$57.13 Published $63.98 Target $49.38 Window close $57.55 Peak
$56.00 – $57.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$57.13Published — price the day we called it
$63.98Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$57.55Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$49.38Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 6% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$57.55
peak on January 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+0.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$49.38
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
January 5, 2026 – April 5, 2026

The thesis — published January 5, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$63.98
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$56.00 – $57.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$57.13
published January 5, 2026
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Bank of America got attention after telling clients to hold a small digital-asset slice and starting coverage of spot Bitcoin ETFs. That could lead to more activity from wealth and trading clients. It is not a fast, volatile winner; instead it may slowly climb over the next 0-3 months if investors shift toward value stocks. Big news about interest rates or lending trouble can quickly change the picture.

Primary drivers

  • More client trading and wealth use from digital-asset coverage
  • A market shift toward value stocks could lift financials
  • Stable mix of fees and consumer banking lowers single-point risk
  • Changes in interest rates and credit outlook drive big moves

How it played out

BAC: the target was not reached

Lyra published BAC at 57.13 on 2026-01-05 for a short-term window ending 2026-04-05. The thesis expected 12% growth toward 63.98. It pointed to digital-asset coverage, possible client trading and wealth activity, a shift toward value stocks, a stable mix of fees and consumer banking, and sensitivity to interest rates and credit outlook.

Inside the window, BAC peaked at 57.55 on 2026-01-05, a 0.7% gain. That stayed below the 63.98 target, and the target was never reached. The stock ended at 49.38. The thesis did not play out on price.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-14, Bank of America reported fourth-quarter results, with adjusted earnings of 98 cents a share and revenue of $28.4 billion. The report said revenue growth came from higher net interest income, asset-management fees, and sales and trading revenue.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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