Track record · closed signal

Apple Inc. (AAPL) — closed signal from January 4, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 4, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

AAPL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$271.01 Published $298.11 Target $255.92 Window close $280.91 Peak
$258.00 – $266.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$271.01Published — price the day we called it
$298.11Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$280.91Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$255.92Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 37% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$280.91
peak on February 6, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+3.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$255.92
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
January 4, 2026 – April 4, 2026

The thesis — published January 4, 2026

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$298.11
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$258.00 – $266.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$271.01
published January 4, 2026
Confidence
60%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Price looks deeply oversold, which often leads to a short-term rebound, but the overall trend and company fundamentals are weak. Market mood is very positive, so expect some baseline demand. Use small buys and wait for price to settle before adding more. News hints at automatic buying from investment funds, which can limit drops but not force a rally.

Primary drivers

  • Very oversold price increases chance of a short rebound
  • Huge customer base and services keep investor interest steady
  • News about ETF/index allocations suggests automatic buying support
  • Weak trend and fundamentals mean the rebound could fail without proof

How it played out

AAPL: rebound came, but target was not reached

Lyra published AAPL at 271.01 on 2026-01-04 with a short-term setup. The thesis expected 10% growth. It pointed to a deeply oversold price, steady investor interest from Apple's customer base and services, possible ETF and index buying support, and a weak trend that could make the rebound fail without proof.

Inside the window, AAPL rose to 280.91 on 2026-02-06. That was a 3.7% peak gain, but it stayed below the 298.11 target. It never got there. By 2026-04-04, it ended at 255.92. The thesis partially played out: there was a rebound, but not the one Lyra targeted.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-29, The Guardian reported that Apple released first-quarter results. It reported revenue up 16% and iPhone revenue up 23%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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