Track record · closed signal

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) — closed signal from January 4, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 4, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

JNJ price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$207.35 Published $223.94 Target $243.04 Window close $251.71 Peak
$204.00 – $208.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$207.35Published — price the day we called it
$223.94Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$251.71Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$243.04Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 23 days.

Peak price
$251.71
peak on March 2, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+21.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$243.04
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
23
Window
January 4, 2026 – April 4, 2026

The thesis — published January 4, 2026

Predicted growth
+8%
over the measurement window
Target price
$223.94
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$204.00 – $208.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$207.35
published January 4, 2026
Confidence
62%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

JNJ looks like a defensive trade: its price is very oversold, so a short-term rebound is likely, but the overall trend is still weak. Positive headlines about 63 years of dividend increases make it attractive to cautious investors during market weakness. Expect small gains if the stock steadies; protect downside with tight stops because it could keep falling.

Primary drivers

  • Very oversold readings increase chance of a short rebound
  • News highlighting 63 years of dividend raises attracts cautious buyers
  • Lower price swings mean easier execution than volatile stocks
  • Need signs of trend stabilization and higher lows to confirm

How it played out

JNJ: target reached in 23 days

On Jan. 4, Lyra published a short-term JNJ thesis at $207.35. It expected 8% growth and pointed to a defensive setup: very oversold readings, headlines about 63 years of dividend raises, lower price swings, and the need for trend stabilization with higher lows.

Inside the window, JNJ reached the $223.94 target in 23 days. The stock later peaked at $251.71 on Mar. 2, with a 21.4% gain. It ended the window at $243.04. The published rebound thesis played out and went beyond the target.

What happened during the window

On Jan. 21, 2026, MarketWatch reported that Johnson & Johnson posted $24.6 billion in fourth-quarter revenue and forecast $100.5 billion in 2026 revenue. The same report said oncology sales reached $25.4 billion in 2025.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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