Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from July 2, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 30, 2025 — +19.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$149.97 – $154.97Entry zone — fair-value band

$156.71Published — price the day we called it

$186.46Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$187.34Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$186.57Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 90 days.

At window close

+19.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+19.5%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+7.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$186.57

last close inside the window, ended September 30, 2025

Peak price

$187.34

peak on September 30, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published July 2, 2025

Predicted growth

+19%

over the measurement window

Target price

$186.46

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$149.97 – $154.97

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$156.71

published July 2, 2025

Confidence

90%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

AI chips are flying off the shelves, letting NVIDIA keep charging top prices. The stock has surged for five days on heavier-than-usual buying. Oracle and OpenAI just booked huge new data-centre power, meaning thousands more chips that Wall Street has not counted yet. Because the share price is only a bit above its recent average and results arrive in August, a 19% climb to about $185-190 looks possible within three months.

Primary drivers

Oracle-OpenAI order points to extra chip demand not yet in forecasts.
Five strong days with high trading volume show fresh buying interest.
August results may raise next year’s outlook, lifting the share price.
Price sits slightly above recent average, leaving room for an 18-20% gain.

How it played out

NVDA: target reached in 90 days

Lyra published NVDA at $156.71 on 2025-07-02 with 19% expected growth and a $186.46 target. The thesis pointed to chip demand tied to Oracle and OpenAI data-centre power, five strong days on high trading volume, August results, and a price slightly above its recent average.

Inside the window, NVDA reached a $187.34 peak on 2025-09-30. That was above the $186.46 target and matched a 19.5% peak gain. It took 90 days. The stock ended the window at $186.57, still above the target. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On September 18, 2025, Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment in Intel and a partnership on data-center and PC products. On September 22, 2025, Nvidia and OpenAI announced a partnership involving up to $100 billion of investment and 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals