Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from July 2, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 30, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$156.71 Published $186.46 Target $186.57 Window close $187.34 Peak
$149.97 – $154.97Entry zone — fair-value band
$156.71Published — price the day we called it
$186.46Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$187.34Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$186.57Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 90 days.

Peak price
$187.34
peak on September 30, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+19.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$186.57
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
90
Window
July 2, 2025 – September 30, 2025

The thesis — published July 2, 2025

Predicted growth
+19%
over the measurement window
Target price
$186.46
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$149.97 – $154.97
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$156.71
published July 2, 2025
Confidence
90%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

AI chips are flying off the shelves, letting NVIDIA keep charging top prices. The stock has surged for five days on heavier-than-usual buying. Oracle and OpenAI just booked huge new data-centre power, meaning thousands more chips that Wall Street has not counted yet. Because the share price is only a bit above its recent average and results arrive in August, a 19% climb to about $185-190 looks possible within three months.

Primary drivers

  • Oracle-OpenAI order points to extra chip demand not yet in forecasts.
  • Five strong days with high trading volume show fresh buying interest.
  • August results may raise next year’s outlook, lifting the share price.
  • Price sits slightly above recent average, leaving room for an 18-20% gain.

How it played out

NVDA: target reached in 90 days

Lyra published NVDA at $156.71 on 2025-07-02 with 19% expected growth and a $186.46 target. The thesis pointed to chip demand tied to Oracle and OpenAI data-centre power, five strong days on high trading volume, August results, and a price slightly above its recent average.

Inside the window, NVDA reached a $187.34 peak on 2025-09-30. That was above the $186.46 target and matched a 19.5% peak gain. It took 90 days. The stock ended the window at $186.57, still above the target. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On September 18, 2025, Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment in Intel and a partnership on data-center and PC products. On September 22, 2025, Nvidia and OpenAI announced a partnership involving up to $100 billion of investment and 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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