Track record · closed signal

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from July 17, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 15, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

PLTR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$153.98 Published $197.09 Target $179.62 Window close $190.00 Peak
$150.00 – $155.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$153.98Published — price the day we called it
$197.09Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$190.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$179.62Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$190.00
peak on August 12, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+23.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$179.62
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
July 17, 2025 – October 15, 2025

The thesis — published July 17, 2025

Predicted growth
+28%
over the measurement window
Target price
$197.09
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$150.00 – $155.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$153.98
published July 17, 2025
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Palantir shares just reached their highest price ever, and trading volume is double what we usually see. The stock is already up 100 percent this year, and many investors expect the August results to highlight more deals for its artificial-intelligence software. Strong demand and better company numbers suggest the climb can continue, but the price looks stretched, so a short-term dip toward the low 150s could appear before another 25-30 percent move higher within three months.

Primary drivers

  • New record price with double-normal trading shows heavy interest.
  • Fresh AI deals could lift next year’s sales by about 27 percent.
  • Options market shows many traders betting on good earnings news.
  • Positive mood and better results make the stock look less expensive.

How it played out

PLTR: target was missed despite a 23.4% peak gain

Lyra published PLTR at 153.98 on 2025-07-17 for a short-term window ending 2025-10-15. The thesis expected 28% growth and pointed to a new record price, double-normal trading volume, fresh artificial-intelligence software deals, options traders betting on earnings, and better company numbers. It also said the price looked stretched.

Inside the window, PLTR rose to 190 on 2025-08-12, for a 23.4% peak gain. The target was 197.09, and the stock never reached it. It ended at 179.62. The thesis partly played out, but the published target was missed.

What happened during the window

On August 4, 2025, Palantir reported second-quarter revenue of $1 billion, up 48% year over year, and raised its full-year revenue guidance to $4.14 billion to $4.15 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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