Track record · closed signal

Liberty Energy Inc. (LBRT) — closed signal from July 17, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 15, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

LBRT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$10.97 – $11.32Entry zone — fair-value band

$11.35Published — price the day we called it

$14.57Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$13.83Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$12.28Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 73% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$13.83

peak on July 25, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+21.8%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$12.28

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

July 17, 2025 – October 15, 2025

The thesis — published July 17, 2025

Predicted growth

+30%

over the measurement window

Target price

$14.57

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$10.97 – $11.32

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$11.35

published July 17, 2025

Confidence

73%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

After a sharp 35 percent slide, almost everyone who wanted to sell has already done so, while mood around the stock is extremely positive. The company just started paying a dividend and has grown profits by about half each year for five years, giving its share price a solid base. With more upbeat talk about oil services and the CEO speaking at a major industry event, the stock could climb toward 16 to 17 dollars within three months as big funds return.

Primary drivers

Heavy recent selling seems exhausted, and very strong sentiment hints at a quick bounce.
New dividend should draw income-focused investors and shows managements confidence.
Profits have grown about 51 percent per year for five years, proving the business is improving.
CEO speech in August could spark fresh analyst reports and greater interest in the stock.

How it played out

LBRT: thesis partly played out but target was missed

Lyra published LBRT at 11.35 on 2025-07-17 with a short-term thesis for 30% growth. The thesis pointed to exhausted selling after a 35 percent slide, very strong sentiment, a new dividend, about 51 percent yearly profit growth over five years, upbeat oil-services talk, and a CEO speech in August that could bring more attention.

Inside the window, the stock rose quickly but did not reach 14.57. It peaked at 13.83 on 2025-07-25, with a 21.8% gain. It never got there. By 2025-10-15, LBRT ended at 12.28. The thesis partly played out, but the target was missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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