Track record · closed signal

The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from January 3, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 3, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$101.57 Published $115.79 Target $93.77 Window close $107.49 Peak
$98.50 – $102.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$101.57Published — price the day we called it
$115.79Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$107.49Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$93.77Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 41% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$107.49
peak on February 10, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+5.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$93.77
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
January 3, 2026 – April 3, 2026

The thesis — published January 3, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$115.79
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$98.50 – $102.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$101.57
published January 3, 2026
Confidence
73%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Charles Schwab looks set to continue higher over the next 0-3 months because money is rotating into banks and brokers. A momentum signal and an established upward pattern suggest buying on small pullbacks instead of chasing big moves. Analyst support from J.P. Morgan and news that financials can still win if the Fed cuts or pauses add buyer interest toward the $121 target.

Primary drivers

  • Schwab benefits when more people trade and interest rates move
  • J.P. Morgan's Overweight rating and $121 target boost confidence
  • Upward trend favors buying during modest pullbacks
  • Broader shift into finance stocks helps positioning into 2026

How it played out

SCHW: thesis missed as target was not reached

Lyra published SCHW at $101.57 on 2026-01-03 with expected growth of 14% over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to rotation into banks and brokers, stronger trading activity, interest-rate sensitivity, J.P. Morgan's Overweight rating with a $121 target, an upward trend, and broader support for finance stocks into 2026.

Inside the window, SCHW peaked at $107.49 on 2026-02-10, a 5.8% gain. It stayed below the $115.79 target and never reached it. By 2026-04-03, it ended at $93.77. The thesis did not play out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-21, Schwab reported fourth-quarter results, with adjusted earnings of $1.39 a share and revenue of $6.336 billion. The same report said trading revenue rose 22% and daily average trading volume rose 31%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Share this receipt

A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SCHW signals