Track record · closed signal

Bilibili Inc. (BILI) — closed signal from January 2, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 2, 2026 — -12.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

BILI price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$25.00 – $26.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$26.07Published — price the day we called it

$31.80Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$36.40Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$22.89Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 10 days.

At window close

-12.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+39.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-3.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$22.89

last close inside the window, ended April 2, 2026

Peak price

$36.40

peak on January 28, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published January 2, 2026

Predicted growth

+22%

over the measurement window

Target price

$31.80

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$25.00 – $26.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$26.07

published January 2, 2026

Confidence

60%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Bilibili could turn around in the next 0-3 months because analysts raised profit forecasts and highlighted possible upside. That can draw quick buying. But the stock is risky: China-related headlines and big price swings can happen, so if you trade it, use small, staged buys and accept higher chance of sudden moves.

Primary drivers

Analyst upgrade on 2025-12-25 supports a turnaround story
Company cost cuts and focus on profits could lift the stock
Talk of higher valuation can prompt quick buying and short-covering
Main risk is China ADR headlines and sudden price gaps

How it played out

BILI: target reached in 10 days

Lyra published BILI on 2026-01-02 at 26.07 for a short-term window ending 2026-04-02. The thesis expected 22% growth and pointed to an analyst upgrade on 2025-12-25, cost cuts, a focus on profits, higher valuation talk, quick buying, and short-covering. It also flagged China ADR headlines and sudden price gaps as risks.

Inside the window, the stock reached the 31.8 target in 10 days. It later peaked at 36.4 on 2026-01-28, with a 39.7% gain. By the end of the window it had fallen to 22.89. The thesis played out on timing and target, even though the closing price was lower.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All BILI signals