The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from July 17, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 15, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 61% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 17, 2025
Schwab shares have dropped 15% because investors worry customers might move cash elsewhere, yet management just repeated that they expect more than $15 billion in interest income this fall. A research firm thinks July 22 earnings will top forecasts, and a July 16 report showed the stock has given investors 23% a year over the past five years. With fewer rate cuts now expected, cash outflows should slow, so a bounce toward $100 within about three months looks realistic.
Primary drivers
- Shares fell hard, which often sets up a quick snap-back move
- Management still sees over $15B in interest income, easing cash worries
- Analysts expect the July 22 earnings report to beat forecasts
- Five-year 23% yearly return shows a strong, lasting growth record
How it played out
SCHW: the target was not reached
Lyra published SCHW at $90.75 on July 17, 2025, with expected growth of 15% over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to a recent 15% drop, management's view of more than $15 billion in interest income, expectations for July 22 earnings, fewer expected rate cuts, and a five-year 23% yearly return.
Inside the window, SCHW rose to a $99.14 peak on August 13, 2025. That was a 9.2% gain, but it stayed below the $103.77 target. It ended the window at $94.06 on October 15, 2025. The thesis partly played out. It never got there.
What happened during the window
On July 18, 2025, MarketWatch reported that Schwab posted record revenue of $5.85 billion, adjusted profit of $1.14 per share, more than 1 million new brokerage accounts, and $80.3 billion in core new assets. The same report said Schwab discussed plans to offer Bitcoin and Ethereum trading, followed by stablecoin and blockchain services.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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