The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from July 17, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 15, 2025 — +3.7% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 61% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 17, 2025
Schwab shares have dropped 15% because investors worry customers might move cash elsewhere, yet management just repeated that they expect more than $15 billion in interest income this fall. A research firm thinks July 22 earnings will top forecasts, and a July 16 report showed the stock has given investors 23% a year over the past five years. With fewer rate cuts now expected, cash outflows should slow, so a bounce toward $100 within about three months looks realistic.
Primary drivers
- Shares fell hard, which often sets up a quick snap-back move
- Management still sees over $15B in interest income, easing cash worries
- Analysts expect the July 22 earnings report to beat forecasts
- Five-year 23% yearly return shows a strong, lasting growth record
How it played out
SCHW: the target was not reached
Lyra published SCHW at $90.75 on July 17, 2025, with expected growth of 15% over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to a recent 15% drop, management's view of more than $15 billion in interest income, expectations for July 22 earnings, fewer expected rate cuts, and a five-year 23% yearly return.
Inside the window, SCHW rose to a $99.14 peak on August 13, 2025. That was a 9.2% gain, but it stayed below the $103.77 target. It ended the window at $94.06 on October 15, 2025. The thesis partly played out. It never got there.
What happened during the window
On July 18, 2025, MarketWatch reported that Schwab posted record revenue of $5.85 billion, adjusted profit of $1.14 per share, more than 1 million new brokerage accounts, and $80.3 billion in core new assets. The same report said Schwab discussed plans to offer Bitcoin and Ethereum trading, followed by stablecoin and blockchain services.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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