Track record · closed signal

Intel Corporation (INTC) — closed signal from January 1, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 1, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

INTC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$35.50 – $37.20Entry zone — fair-value band

$36.90Published — price the day we called it

$41.33Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$54.60Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$48.03Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 4 days.

Peak price

$54.60

peak on January 22, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+48%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$48.03

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

Window

January 1, 2026 – April 1, 2026

The thesis — published January 1, 2026

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$41.33

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$35.50 – $37.20

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$36.90

published January 1, 2026

Confidence

62%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Big headlines are driving Intel right now: Nvidia reportedly bought $5 billion of Intel shares and tests of advanced manufacturing tools were reported. That news can push sentiment higher for a few weeks, but Intel still faces big execution challenges and weaker core results, so this is a short-term trade requiring tight risk limits.

Primary drivers

Big news can quickly change how investors view the stock
Progress on factory tech can shift confidence in execution
High volatility can make gains larger in a risk-on market
Still a lot of downside risk without steady improvement

How it played out

INTC: target reached in 4 days

Lyra published a short-term INTC thesis on 2026-01-01 at 36.9. It expected 12% growth toward 41.33. The thesis pointed to Nvidia reportedly buying $5 billion of Intel shares, reported tests of advanced manufacturing tools, faster sentiment shifts from big news, factory-tech progress, high volatility, and downside risk without steady improvement.

Inside the window, INTC reached the target in 4 days. It peaked at 54.6 on 2026-01-22, with a 48% gain. It ended the window at 48.03 on 2026-04-01. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On January 5, 2026, Intel announced Core Ultra Series 3 at CES 2026, described as its first client processors built on Intel 18A. On January 22, 2026, Intel reported Q4 2025 revenue of $13.7 billion and a $600 million net loss.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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