Track record · closed signal

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) — closed signal from January 1, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 1, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

UNH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$322.00 – $332.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$330.11Published — price the day we called it

$356.52Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$357.87Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$273.98Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 22 days.

Peak price

$357.87

peak on January 23, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+8.4%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$273.98

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

Window

January 1, 2026 – April 1, 2026

The thesis — published January 1, 2026

Predicted growth

+8%

over the measurement window

Target price

$356.52

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$322.00 – $332.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$330.11

published January 1, 2026

Confidence

61%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

UnitedHealth is seen as a safer pick in healthcare but news about expiring subsidies and possible big premium increases can scare investors. That news can push the whole insurance group lower even if UnitedHealth is stabilizing. Expect slow, steady gains rather than a fast jump; avoid large positions when policy headlines are uncertain.

Primary drivers

Seen as safer in market swings, so investors may move here when worried
Good media attention can bring more buying interest in the short term
Government policy changes can quickly change how people view insurers
Price is settling slowly, so gains are likely to be cautious and steady

How it played out

UNH: target reached in 22 days

Lyra published UNH at $330.11 on 2026-01-01 with expected growth of 8%. The thesis pointed to UnitedHealth as a safer healthcare pick, but also warned that subsidy and premium headlines could scare investors. It expected slow, steady gains rather than a fast jump.

Inside the window, UNH reached the $356.52 target. The peak was $357.87 on 2026-01-23, a 8.4% gain, and the target was reached in 22 days. It did not hold those gains through the end. The stock finished the window at $273.98 on 2026-04-01. Verdict: the target thesis played out, but the later path did not stay steady.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-27, UnitedHealth reported fourth-quarter 2025 results and gave 2026 revenue guidance of more than $439 billion, according to MarketWatch. On the same date, CMS proposed a 0.09% payment increase for 2027 Medicare Advantage plans, according to MarketWatch.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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