Track record · closed signal

Bank of America Corporation (BAC) — closed signal from January 1, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 1, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

BAC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$55.00 Published $59.95 Target $49.27 Window close $57.55 Peak
$53.50 – $55.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$55.00Published — price the day we called it
$59.95Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$57.55Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$49.27Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 51% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$57.55
peak on January 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+4.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$49.27
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
January 1, 2026 – April 1, 2026

The thesis — published January 1, 2026

Predicted growth
+9%
over the measurement window
Target price
$59.95
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$53.50 – $55.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$55.00
published January 1, 2026
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Bank of America looks like a calm rebound candidate: news about big investors and a revival in bank deals helps the whole sector, and the stock appears deeply sold off so it could bounce if selling runs out. But the upward momentum is not fully back yet, so buy in stages and set clear exits in case weakness returns.

Primary drivers

  • Being heavily sold could lead to a short-term bounce if selling eases
  • Renewed optimism around bank deals can lift investors overall
  • News that large owners hold the stock can steady demand
  • Well-known bank can attract money when markets take more risk

How it played out

BAC: thesis only partly played out

Lyra published BAC at $55 on January 1, 2026, with 9% expected growth over a short-term window ending April 1, 2026. The thesis pointed to a heavily sold stock that could bounce if selling eased, renewed optimism around bank deals, large owners holding the stock, and demand for a well-known bank when markets took more risk.

BAC rose early and peaked at $57.55 on January 5, 2026, a 4.6% gain. It stayed below the $59.95 target and never reached it inside the window. By April 1, 2026, it ended at $49.27. The thesis partly played out, but the target was missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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