Track record · closed signal

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) — closed signal from December 31, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 31, 2026 — -18.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

UNH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$325.00 – $335.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$331.99Published — price the day we called it

$365.19Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$357.87Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$270.59Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 78% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-18.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+7.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-4.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$270.59

last close inside the window, ended March 31, 2026

Peak price

$357.87

peak on January 23, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published December 31, 2025

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$365.19

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$325.00 – $335.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$331.99

published December 31, 2025

Confidence

61%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

UnitedHealth looks like a steadier name when managed-care sentiment calms. Recent short-term price signals and a rising price trend suggest it could move slowly higher over the next few months. A large cash balance mentioned in recent coverage reduces downside risk, but medical costs and policy news could still hold back gains.

Primary drivers

Strong balance sheet gives a cushion against drops
Short-term price signals point to stabilization
Healthcare is less volatile than many tech names
Medical cost and policy stories can still slow gains

How it played out

UNH: target was not reached

Lyra published UNH at $331.99 on 2025-12-31 with a short-term 10% growth view. The target was $365.19. The thesis pointed to a strong balance sheet, stabilizing short-term price signals, lower volatility in healthcare, and the risk that medical cost and policy stories could slow gains.

Inside the window, UNH rose to a peak of $357.87 on 2026-01-23, a 7.8% gain. That stayed below the target. It never got there. By 2026-03-31, the stock ended at $270.59. The thesis partly played out early, but it missed the published target and finished well below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-27, UnitedHealth reported fourth-quarter revenue of $113.2 billion and projected 2026 revenue of more than $439 billion. On the same date, CMS proposed a 0.09% increase for 2027 Medicare Advantage rates, and UnitedHealth said it planned to work with CMS on the final rate.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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