monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) — closed signal from December 31, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 31, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 21% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published December 31, 2025
The stock looks like it may bounce after a big drop because sentiment is still strong, but the company is volatile and its underlying business isn't fully backing that optimism. A recent Citi move to drop it from a focus list and cut the target creates short-term uncertainty that could either keep pressure on the price or lead to a quick relief rally if selling calms.
Primary drivers
- Citi removed it from a focus list, creating short-term pressure
- Momentum measures show the stock is very oversold and could bounce
- Many analysts still rate it positively overall
- Big price swings mean smaller positions and faster exits
How it played out
MNDY: the target was not reached
Lyra published MNDY at 145.45 on 2025-12-31 with an expected gain of 18%. The thesis pointed to a possible bounce after a big drop. It also pointed to Citi removing the stock from a focus list, oversold momentum measures, still-positive analyst ratings, and high volatility that called for smaller positions and faster exits.
Inside the window, MNDY rose to a peak of 151 on 2026-01-08, a gain of 3.8%. It stayed below the 171.63 target and never reached it. By 2026-03-31, it ended at 69.11. The bounce was small and brief. The thesis missed.
What happened during the window
On 2026-02-09, monday.com reported fourth-quarter 2025 results. Investors.com reported revenue of $333.9 million and 2026 revenue guidance of $1.46 billion. The same report said the stock fell after the guidance came in below Wall Street estimates.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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