monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) — closed signal from December 31, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 31, 2026 — -52.5% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 21% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published December 31, 2025
The stock looks like it may bounce after a big drop because sentiment is still strong, but the company is volatile and its underlying business isn't fully backing that optimism. A recent Citi move to drop it from a focus list and cut the target creates short-term uncertainty that could either keep pressure on the price or lead to a quick relief rally if selling calms.
Primary drivers
- Citi removed it from a focus list, creating short-term pressure
- Momentum measures show the stock is very oversold and could bounce
- Many analysts still rate it positively overall
- Big price swings mean smaller positions and faster exits
How it played out
MNDY: the target was not reached
Lyra published MNDY at 145.45 on 2025-12-31 with an expected gain of 18%. The thesis pointed to a possible bounce after a big drop. It also pointed to Citi removing the stock from a focus list, oversold momentum measures, still-positive analyst ratings, and high volatility that called for smaller positions and faster exits.
Inside the window, MNDY rose to a peak of 151 on 2026-01-08, a gain of 3.8%. It stayed below the 171.63 target and never reached it. By 2026-03-31, it ended at 69.11. The bounce was small and brief. The thesis missed.
What happened during the window
On 2026-02-09, monday.com reported fourth-quarter 2025 results. Investors.com reported revenue of $333.9 million and 2026 revenue guidance of $1.46 billion. The same report said the stock fell after the guidance came in below Wall Street estimates.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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