UiPath Inc. (PATH) — closed signal from December 31, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 31, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 43% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published December 31, 2025
This is a short-term trade idea based on a clear timing event: the stock will be added to the S&P MidCap 400, which typically brings a burst of buying from funds that track the index. Analysts also raised expectations, which improves the chance of a price jump. Momentum signs are mixed, so treat this as a tactical play and be prepared to exit if the price does not hold after the index addition.
Primary drivers
- Index addition brings predictable buying from funds tracking the index
- Analyst target raise improves market expectations for the near term
- Recent price measures show the stock is unusually weak and may bounce into the event
- Overall momentum is still negative, so confirmation after the event matters
How it played out
PATH: target was never reached
Lyra published PATH on December 31, 2025 at $16.52 as a short-term trade. The thesis expected 20% growth to $19.83. It pointed to the S&P MidCap 400 addition, likely fund buying tied to that index, a raised analyst target, weak recent price measures that could bounce into the event, and still negative overall momentum.
Inside the window, PATH peaked at $17.94 on January 7, 2026, a gain of 8.6%. That stayed below the $19.83 target. It never got there. By March 31, 2026, the stock ended at $11.10. The thesis partially played out early, then missed the target.
What happened during the window
On March 12, 2026, The Wall Street Journal reported that UiPath had beaten quarterly expectations but projected slower annual revenue growth. The article also reported that the shares fell that day.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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