Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from December 31, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 31, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$187.54 Published $247.55 Target $174.40 Window close $197.63 Peak
$180.00 – $188.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$187.54Published — price the day we called it
$247.55Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$197.63Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$174.40Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 17% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$197.63
peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+5.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$174.40
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 31, 2025 – March 31, 2026

The thesis — published December 31, 2025

Predicted growth
+32%
over the measurement window
Target price
$247.55
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$180.00 – $188.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$187.54
published December 31, 2025
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is the clearest short-term leader in AI infrastructure. Recent price action and trend signals suggest the uptrend can continue, and xAI building a large data center near Memphis should increase demand for GPUs soon. Main risks are big price swings and export-policy headlines tied to lobbying, so prefer buying on dips rather than chasing big moves.

Primary drivers

  • xAI building a big data center boosts near-term GPU orders
  • Positive momentum and price action support continued strength
  • Leadership in AI platforms helps keep pricing power and market share
  • Policy and lobbying headlines can cause sharp drops and volatility

How it played out

NVDA: target was not reached

Lyra published NVDA at $187.54 on 2025-12-31, with an expected gain of 32% and a target of $247.55. The thesis pointed to leadership in artificial intelligence infrastructure, demand tied to xAI's Memphis data center, positive momentum, and pricing power. It also named volatility and export-policy headlines as risks.

Inside the window, NVDA peaked at $197.63 on 2026-02-25, a 5.4% gain. It stayed below the target and never reached $247.55. By 2026-03-31, it ended at $174.40. The thesis only partially played out: there was an early rise, but the target was missed and the window closed below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-25, NVIDIA reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $68 billion, according to the New York Post. In March 2026, NVIDIA announced Vera Rubin hardware at GTC, according to Tom's Hardware.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Share this receipt

A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals