Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from December 31, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 31, 2026 — -7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$180.00 – $188.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$187.54Published — price the day we called it

$247.55Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$197.63Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$174.40Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 17% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+5.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-4.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$174.40

last close inside the window, ended March 31, 2026

Peak price

$197.63

peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published December 31, 2025

Predicted growth

+32%

over the measurement window

Target price

$247.55

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$180.00 – $188.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$187.54

published December 31, 2025

Confidence

78%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is the clearest short-term leader in AI infrastructure. Recent price action and trend signals suggest the uptrend can continue, and xAI building a large data center near Memphis should increase demand for GPUs soon. Main risks are big price swings and export-policy headlines tied to lobbying, so prefer buying on dips rather than chasing big moves.

Primary drivers

xAI building a big data center boosts near-term GPU orders
Positive momentum and price action support continued strength
Leadership in AI platforms helps keep pricing power and market share
Policy and lobbying headlines can cause sharp drops and volatility

How it played out

NVDA: target was not reached

Lyra published NVDA at $187.54 on 2025-12-31, with an expected gain of 32% and a target of $247.55. The thesis pointed to leadership in artificial intelligence infrastructure, demand tied to xAI's Memphis data center, positive momentum, and pricing power. It also named volatility and export-policy headlines as risks.

Inside the window, NVDA peaked at $197.63 on 2026-02-25, a 5.4% gain. It stayed below the target and never reached $247.55. By 2026-03-31, it ended at $174.40. The thesis only partially played out: there was an early rise, but the target was missed and the window closed below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-25, NVIDIA reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $68 billion, according to the New York Post. In March 2026, NVIDIA announced Vera Rubin hardware at GTC, according to Tom's Hardware.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals