Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc. (Class A) (GOOGL) — closed signal from December 31, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 31, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOGL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$313.85 Published $351.51 Target $287.56 Window close $349.00 Peak
$300.00 – $308.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$313.85Published — price the day we called it
$351.51Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$349.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$287.56Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$349.00
peak on February 3, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+11.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$287.56
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 31, 2025 – March 31, 2026

The thesis — published December 31, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$351.51
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$300.00 – $308.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$313.85
published December 31, 2025
Confidence
61%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet is trading as an AI and autonomy opportunity: investor excitement is high, but recent momentum looks weak and not many buyers are participating. Waymo saying it could reach about 1 million weekly rides in 2026 keeps the growth story alive and may attract buyers over the next quarter. Prefer buying dips and recheck once momentum improves.

Primary drivers

  • Waymo aiming for large ride volume in 2026 strengthens the autonomy story
  • AI-driven spending boosts demand for Google Cloud and AI services
  • Strong positive sentiment can lift the stock if momentum firms up
  • Weak momentum and low buying volume increase the risk of a failed move

How it played out

GOOGL: rose near the target, then missed

Lyra published GOOGL on 2025-12-31 at $313.85. The thesis expected 12% growth to $351.51. It pointed to Waymo aiming for large ride volume in 2026, demand for Google Cloud and artificial intelligence services, positive sentiment, and the risk that weak momentum and low buying volume could stop the move.

Inside the window, GOOGL peaked at $349 on 2026-02-03, with a 11.2% gain. That stayed below the $351.51 target. It never got there. By 2026-03-31, the stock ended at $287.56. The thesis partially played out early, then missed by the close.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-04, Alphabet reported Q4 2025 revenue of $113.83 billion and said annual revenue exceeded $400 billion. The same report said Google Cloud revenue was $17.66 billion for the quarter.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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