Track record · closed signal

Apple Inc. (AAPL) — closed signal from December 31, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 31, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

AAPL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$273.08 Published $300.39 Target $253.79 Window close $280.91 Peak
$270.00 – $275.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$273.08Published — price the day we called it
$300.39Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$280.91Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$253.79Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 29% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$280.91
peak on February 6, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+2.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$253.79
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 31, 2025 – March 31, 2026

The thesis — published December 31, 2025

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$300.39
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$270.00 – $275.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$273.08
published December 31, 2025
Confidence
60%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Price looks unusually low compared with recent behavior and many investors are still optimistic. Company strength here is mixed: its business is big and steady, but the internal financial signals in this dataset are weak and a trend indicator is still pointing down. Headlines about investors shifting toward AI and steady market gains make a short-term bounce more likely. Use defined risk on any pullback and watch closely.

Primary drivers

  • Price is unusually low, so a short-term bounce is likely
  • Services and device ecosystem help steady revenue in choppy markets
  • Overall market strength makes large tech stocks more likely to rise
  • Conflicting signals increase the chance the bounce could fail

How it played out

AAPL: target was not reached

Lyra published AAPL at 273.08 on 2025-12-31 with expected growth of 10%. The target was 300.39. The thesis pointed to an unusually low price, a possible short-term bounce, steady revenue from services and the device ecosystem, broader market strength, and conflicting signals that made failure possible.

Inside the window, AAPL peaked at 280.91 on 2026-02-06, a 2.9% gain. It stayed below the target and never reached it. By 2026-03-31, it ended at 253.79. The thesis only partially played out: there was a small bounce, but not enough to meet the published target.

What happened during the window

On February 17, 2026, What Hi-Fi reported that Apple had announced a March 4, 2026 "special Apple Experience" in London, New York, and Shanghai, with new products expected. This was an announcement during the measurement window, not an explanation for the price move.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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