Track record · closed signal

UiPath Inc. (PATH) — closed signal from December 29, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 29, 2026 — -36.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

PATH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$16.40 – $17.20Entry zone — fair-value band

$16.87Published — price the day we called it

$21.09Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$17.94Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$10.69Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 25% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-36.6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+6.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-7.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$10.69

last close inside the window, ended March 29, 2026

Peak price

$17.94

peak on January 7, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published December 29, 2025

Predicted growth

+25%

over the measurement window

Target price

$21.09

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$16.40 – $17.20

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$16.87

published December 29, 2025

Confidence

68%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

UiPath's shares jumped after confirmation it will join the S&P MidCap 400 around Jan 2. That event can bring index-related buying and make the stock easier to trade, but the company's business is weaker than the market enthusiasm. This makes the idea a short-term trade based on money flows and positioning; set strict rules and exit quickly if the pop fades.

Primary drivers

Inclusion may trigger automatic buying from investment funds
Industry focus on automation and agent-like AI keeps attention
Stock looks overly sold and may bounce back temporarily
Big price swings mean tight risk controls and phased buys

How it played out

PATH: thesis missed the 25% target

Lyra published PATH at $16.87 on 2025-12-29 as a short-term trade. The thesis expected 25% growth. It pointed to S&P MidCap 400 inclusion around Jan 2, possible automatic buying from investment funds, interest in automation and agent-like artificial intelligence, an oversold setup, and large price swings that called for tight rules.

Inside the window, PATH rose to a peak of $17.94 on 2026-01-07. That was a 6.3% gain, but it stayed below the $21.09 target. It never got there. By 2026-03-29, the stock ended at $10.69. The thesis did not play out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All PATH signals