Track record · closed signal

Pfizer Inc. (PFE) — closed signal from December 29, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 29, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

PFE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$25.12 Published $28.13 Target $27.04 Window close $27.94 Peak
$24.80 – $25.30Entry zone — fair-value band
$25.12Published — price the day we called it
$28.13Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$27.94Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$27.04Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$27.94
peak on February 11, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+11.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$27.04
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
Window
December 29, 2025 – March 29, 2026

The thesis — published December 29, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$28.13
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$24.80 – $25.30
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$25.12
published December 29, 2025
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Pfizer looks like a short-term trade for income and quick recovery rather than a long-term buy. The stock pays a high dividend near 6.8% which attracts buyers, but the company is currently paying out more than it earns, so the dividend may not last. After heavy recent selling, a bounce is possible, but headlines can cause sudden drops. Treat this as a tactical rebound with strict risk limits.

Primary drivers

  • Been sold a lot recently, so a short-term rebound is possible
  • Investors move to healthcare in sell-offs, which can lift demand
  • High dividend attracts buyers, but payout may not be sustainable
  • News about obesity/metabolic drugs keeps the sector in focus

How it played out

PFE: target missed after an 11.2% peak gain

Lyra published PFE on 2025-12-29 at $25.12 as a short-term rebound trade. The thesis expected 12% growth and pointed to recent selling, possible healthcare demand during sell-offs, a high dividend near 6.8%, and obesity and metabolic drug news keeping the sector in focus. It also treated the setup as tactical, with headline risk.

Inside the window from 2025-12-29 to 2026-03-29, PFE rose to a peak of $27.94 on 2026-02-11. That was an 11.2% gain, but it stayed below the $28.13 target. It ended at $27.04. The thesis mostly played out, but the target was not reached.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.