Track record · closed signal

monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) — closed signal from December 29, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 29, 2026 — -54.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MNDY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$146.31 Published $175.57 Target $66.47 Window close $151.00 Peak
$140.00 – $148.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$146.31Published — price the day we called it
$175.57Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$151.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$66.47Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 16% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-54.6%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+3.2%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
-7.6%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$66.47
last close inside the window, ended March 29, 2026
Peak price
$151.00
peak on January 8, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published December 29, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$175.57
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$140.00 – $148.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$146.31
published December 29, 2025
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

monday.com is a higher-risk cloud software stock with mixed signals. Some analysts raised price targets, which can bring buyers, but a big investor sold and a bank removed it from a focus list, which can push the price down. In a weak market this creates choppy moves. Treat it as something to watch and trade after signs of stability, not an automatic buy.

Primary drivers

  • New analyst coverage and higher targets can bring new buyers and lift the stock
  • Large investor selling and negative headlines can limit rallies and pressure the price
  • Demand for AI tools and workflow software supports longer-term customer growth
  • As a volatile SaaS stock it can rebound quickly if investors become more willing to take risk

How it played out

MNDY: target missed after a brief January peak

Lyra published MNDY at 146.31 on 2025-12-29 with an expected gain of 20% and a target of 175.57. The thesis was cautious. It pointed to new analyst coverage and higher targets as possible support, but also cited large investor selling, negative headlines, weaker-market risk, demand for workflow software with artificial intelligence features, and the chance of a rebound if risk appetite improved.

Inside the window, the stock reached its high of 151 on 2026-01-08, a peak gain of 3.2%. It stayed below the target. By 2026-03-29, it ended at 66.47. The published thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On February 9, 2026, Investors.com reported that monday.com posted adjusted earnings of $1.45 per share and revenue of $333.9 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, while its 2026 revenue outlook was below estimates.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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