Track record · closed signal

Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) — closed signal from December 28, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 28, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMAT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$261.90 Published $298.57 Target $337.17 Window close $395.95 Peak
$250.00 – $262.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$261.90Published — price the day we called it
$298.57Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$395.95Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$337.17Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 12 days.

Peak price
$395.95
peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+51.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$337.17
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
12
Window
December 28, 2025 – March 28, 2026

The thesis — published December 28, 2025

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$298.57
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$250.00 – $262.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$261.90
published December 28, 2025
Confidence
62%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

AMAT is a buy-on-weakness idea: it's not a clear leader now and needs confirmation the selling has stopped. News is positive for the sector and names like AMAT can recover if factory spending for chips stays steady. Because signals are mixed and price swings are possible, a safer approach is to buy near known support and wait for signs of repair before adding.

Primary drivers

  • More chip factory and memory spending should drive equipment orders
  • Positive news casts AMAT as an undervalued big tech name
  • Recent overselling could reverse if selling slows
  • Buying near support limits downside while letting upside play out

How it played out

AMAT: target reached in 12 days

Lyra published AMAT at 261.90 on 2025-12-28 as a short-term buy-on-weakness idea. The thesis expected 14% growth and pointed to chip factory and memory spending, a view that AMAT looked undervalued among large technology names, possible repair after recent overselling, and buying near support between 250 and 262.

Inside the window, AMAT reached the 298.57 target in 12 days. It later peaked at 395.95 on 2026-02-25, a 51.2% gain. By 2026-03-28 it ended at 337.17, still above the target. The thesis played out clearly.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-12, Applied Materials reported fiscal first-quarter earnings of 2.38 per share on revenue of 7.01 billion. On 2026-02-12, the company also agreed to pay a 252 million civil penalty tied to alleged export violations.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All AMAT signals