Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from December 28, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 28, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$190.53 Published $224.83 Target $167.52 Window close $197.63 Peak
$180.00 – $192.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$190.53Published — price the day we called it
$224.83Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$197.63Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$167.52Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 21% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$197.63
peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+3.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$167.52
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 28, 2025 – March 28, 2026

The thesis — published December 28, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$224.83
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$180.00 – $192.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$190.53
published December 28, 2025
Confidence
77%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is seen as a main way to own AI for the next few months. Analysts note heavy institutional buying but say the stock has run up a lot and could be risky in the short term. News suggests valuations may keep rising even as concerns persist. The recommended approach is to buy small amounts on controlled dips instead of chasing higher prices.

Primary drivers

  • Demand for AI data-center gear is driving sales and growth
  • Big investors are actively buying, supporting price strength
  • Positive economic headlines can keep investor interest and valuations up
  • Buying on dips reduces the chance of buying at a short-term peak

How it played out

NVDA: target was not reached

Lyra published NVDA at $190.53 on 2025-12-28 with an expected gain of 18%. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence data-center gear, buying by big investors, positive economic headlines, and a preference for buying controlled dips instead of chasing higher prices.

Inside the window, NVDA peaked at $197.63 on 2026-02-25, a 3.7% gain. That stayed below the $224.83 target. It never got there. By 2026-03-28, the stock ended at $167.52. The thesis only partially played out on price, then missed the target.

What happened during the window

On February 25, 2026, Nvidia reported fiscal Q4 2026 revenue of $68.13 billion and data center revenue of $62.3 billion. Business Insider also reported that the company discussed Vera Rubin chips in the same earnings update.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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