Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from December 28, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 28, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 54% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published December 28, 2025
Price looks ready for a short-term rebound because selling has pushed it low (momentum indicator near 21) even though the larger trend still favors the downside. Management's robotaxi plans for 10-plus markets keep a long-term growth story alive. If selling calms, sentiment could bring quick dip buying.
Primary drivers
- Price is unusually low, so a bounce is likely if selling slows
- Robotaxi plans for 10+ markets add future growth potential
- Positive sentiment can bring quick buyers on a stabilization
- Multiple businesses (rides, delivery, ads) offer ways to grow revenue
How it played out
UBER: rebound started but target was missed
Lyra published UBER at $81.26 on 2025-12-28 with a short-term thesis for 16% growth. The thesis pointed to a low momentum reading near 21, a possible rebound if selling slowed, robotaxi plans for 10-plus markets, positive sentiment after stabilization, and growth paths across rides, delivery, and ads.
Inside the window, UBER rose to $88.24 on 2026-01-08, a peak gain of 8.6%. That stayed below the $94.26 target, so the target was never reached. By 2026-03-28, the stock ended at $69.18. The thesis partly played out early, but it missed the full target.
What happened during the window
On 2026-02-04, MarketWatch reported Uber's fourth-quarter results, including revenue of $14.37 billion, gross bookings of $54.14 billion, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.71. On 2026-02-23, The Verge reported that Uber launched Uber Autonomous Solutions to support third-party autonomous vehicle partners with services such as vehicle financing, fleet management, regulatory support, and training data.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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