Track record · closed signal

Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) — closed signal from December 26, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 26, 2026 — +29.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMAT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$252.00 – $262.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$261.61Published — price the day we called it

$298.24Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$395.95Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$338.55Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 14 days.

At window close

+29.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+51.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-6.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$338.55

last close inside the window, ended March 26, 2026

Peak price

$395.95

peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published December 26, 2025

Predicted growth

+14%

over the measurement window

Target price

$298.24

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$252.00 – $262.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$261.61

published December 26, 2025

Confidence

66%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

There is good news supporting Applied Materials: a major bank highlighted stronger DRAM demand and raised its target, and AI-related memory needs should keep companies buying equipment. However, another report says the stock may be a bit expensive and market momentum is still recovering. Favor buying small on weakness rather than chasing higher prices.

Primary drivers

Bank note on DRAM and higher target helps sentiment near term
AI-led memory spending keeps demand for equipment steady
Conflicting valuation views may limit upside and increase pullbacks
Momentum still recovering; better to buy on pullbacks than on strength

How it played out

AMAT: target reached in 14 days

Lyra published AMAT at $261.61 on 2025-12-26 with expected growth of 14%. The thesis pointed to a bank note on DRAM, equipment demand tied to artificial intelligence-related memory spending, mixed valuation views, and recovering momentum. It favored small buying on weakness rather than chasing strength.

Inside the window, AMAT reached the $298.24 target in 14 days. The stock later peaked at $395.95 on 2026-02-25, with a peak gain of 51.3%. It ended the window at $338.55. The thesis played out, and the move went beyond the stated target.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-12, Applied Materials reported fiscal first-quarter adjusted earnings of $2.38 per share on $7.01 billion in revenue. On 2026-02-12, the company also agreed to pay a $252 million civil penalty tied to alleged export-control violations.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All AMAT signals