Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from December 26, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 26, 2026 — -13.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$79.00 – $82.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$81.26Published — price the day we called it

$99.13Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$88.24Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$70.55Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 39% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-13.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+8.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-6.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$70.55

last close inside the window, ended March 26, 2026

Peak price

$88.24

peak on January 8, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published December 26, 2025

Predicted growth

+22%

over the measurement window

Target price

$99.13

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$79.00 – $82.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$81.26

published December 26, 2025

Confidence

74%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

This is a short-term trade idea for the next 0-3 months based on recent autonomy headlines - robotaxi trials and vertiport plans - that could rekindle interest in Uber. Analysts see the stock as oversold so it might bounce, but near-term price action is mixed. If broader market appetite returns the move can be quick; keep position sizes small because the stock is still volatile and needs confirmation before adding.

Primary drivers

Robotaxi trial news keeps autonomous mobility in Uber's story
Vertiport buildout news strengthens Uber's long-term mobility case
Oversold stock can rebound quickly when markets turn favorable
Mixed short-term signals raise the chance of whipsaw, so wait to add

How it played out

UBER: target missed as shares ended lower

Lyra published UBER at $81.26 on 2025-12-26 for a short-term window ending 2026-03-26. The thesis expected 22% growth and pointed to robotaxi trial news, vertiport buildout news, an oversold setup, and the chance of a fast rebound if market appetite returned. It also warned that short-term signals were mixed.

Inside the window, UBER peaked at $88.24 on 2026-01-08, a gain of 8.6%. It stayed below the $99.13 target and never reached it. By 2026-03-26, it ended at $70.55. The thesis partially played out early, but missed the target.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-04, Uber reported fourth-quarter results, and MarketWatch said the stock fell after profit missed expectations. On 2026-03-19, AP reported that Uber announced an investment of up to $1.25 billion in Rivian tied to robotaxi development and deployment.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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