Track record · closed signal

UiPath Inc. (PATH) — closed signal from December 25, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 25, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

PATH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$17.16 Published $20.25 Target $10.93 Window close $17.94 Peak
$16.30 – $17.40Entry zone — fair-value band
$17.16Published — price the day we called it
$20.25Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$17.94Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$10.93Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 25% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$17.94
peak on January 7, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+4.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$10.93
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 25, 2025 – March 25, 2026

The thesis — published December 25, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$20.25
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$16.30 – $17.40
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$17.16
published December 25, 2025
Confidence
60%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

UiPath will join the S&P MidCap 400 before Jan 2, 2026, which often forces big funds to buy shares during the inclusion window. That can push the stock higher quickly but may reverse once the forced buying ends. This is a short-term event trade for 0-3 months - consider buying only on pullbacks and wait for confirmation after the index change.

Primary drivers

  • Index addition forces large funds to buy, raising demand and volume
  • Stock momentum can continue around announced event dates
  • Price can reverse when the forced buying stops, so use strict rules
  • Strong automation/AI story can attract more buying after the event

How it played out

PATH: the target was not reached

Lyra published PATH at 17.16 on 2025-12-25 with an expected gain of 18%. The target was 20.25. The thesis pointed to UiPath joining the S&P MidCap 400 before Jan. 2, 2026, possible fund buying during the inclusion window, event-date momentum, reversal risk after that buying ended, and a broader automation and artificial intelligence story.

Inside the window, PATH rose only to 17.94 on 2026-01-07, a peak gain of 4.5%. It stayed below the target. By 2026-03-25, it ended at 10.93. The thesis did not play out as published. It never got there.

What happened during the window

On 2026-03-12, Barron's reported that UiPath had posted adjusted earnings of $0.30 per share on revenue of $481.1 million, and that the stock was down 6.9% at $11.53 in early trading after the report. The article also said the company guided fiscal 2027 revenue to $1.75 billion to $1.76 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All PATH signals